New Delhi, Mar 13 (KNN) India’s real GDP growth is expected to moderate to 7.1 per cent in FY27 from 7.6 per cent in FY26, according to rating firm Crisil.
The forecast assumes a normal monsoon, moderate food inflation, Brent crude prices of USD 75–80 per barrel and steady global growth, despite tariff and geopolitical uncertainties.
Domestic Demand to Drive Growth
Growth will remain supported by domestic demand, public infrastructure capex and a gradual pick-up in private investment, even as the global environment stays uncertain.
Fiscal measures such as income-tax cuts, GST rationalisation, higher direct benefit transfers and adequate liquidity are supporting consumption by improving household disposable incomes and lowering borrowing costs.
Amish Mehta, Managing Director and CEO, Crisil, said, “India has grown steadily in an environment buffeted by exogenous uncertainties. Our fiscal 2027 forecast reflects its strong domestic counterweights, especially consumption, infrastructure capex, uptick in the private investment cycle led by emerging sectors and gradually improving trade competitiveness.”
“However, continuing geopolitical conflicts, the proliferation of technology-driven disruptions, public debt levels and climate vagaries will need close monitoring,” Mehta added.
Consumption and Inflation Outlook
Private consumption, accounting for about 57 per cent of GDP, will remain the main growth driver, though the pace may moderate as one-off tax benefits taper.
Consumer Price Index inflation is expected to average 4.3 per cent in FY27 as food prices normalise, though the lower food weight in the CPI basket should help contain headline inflation.
Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist, Crisil, noted, “Domestic demand is expected to stay supportive in fiscal 2027, with fiscal measures lifting disposable incomes and private investment seeing a mild pick-up. That said, risks remain tilted to the downside, given renewed geopolitical flare-ups and lingering trade-related uncertainty that can transmit through commodity prices, trade and capital flows.”
Exports, Corporate Performance and Capex
Exports are expected to remain steady, supported by services exports and recent trade agreements, although geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose risks.
Corporate revenue growth is projected at 8–9 per cent, while Ebitda margins may decline by 40–60 basis points due to subdued realisations and supply disruptions.
Public capex, estimated at around 3.1 per cent of GDP, along with lower borrowing costs, will continue to crowd in private investment.
Priti Arora, President and Business Head, Crisil Intelligence said industrial capex could reach about Rs 9.1 lakh crore annually between FY27 and FY31, a 1.5x increase, driven by sectors such as electronics, semiconductors, electric vehicles, solar PV, defence and AI infrastructure.
India’s exports are projected to double to about Rs 80 lakh crore by FY31, supported by improvements in infrastructure, technology adoption, skill development and localisation initiatives, the report said.
(KNN Bureau)
